Crossword Genius

It's probably similar to a runny nose? (4,2,3)

Ross

I believe the answer is:

like as not

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'it's probably' is the definition.
(I've seen this in another clue)

'similar to a runny nose?' is the wordplay.
'similar to' becomes 'like' (I've seen this before).
'runny nose?' becomes 'snot' (I can't explain this - if you can you should believe this answer much more).
'like'+'a'+'snot'='LIKE AS NOT'

Can you help me to learn more?

(Another definition for like as not that I've seen is " probably".)

I've seen this clue in The Irish Times.
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