An even chance the matador will try to avoid (4-2)
I believe the answer is:
toss-up
'an even chance' is the definition.
(I know that even chance can be written as toss-up)
'matador will try to avoid' is the wordplay.
I cannot really see how this works, but
'to' is present in the answer.
This may be the basis of the clue (or it may be nonsense).
'the' acts as a link.
Can you help me to learn more?
(Other definitions for toss-up that I've seen before include "Use of a coin to choose" , "Flip of a coin" , "It helps you pick" , "Fifty-fifty chance" .)